Freight cycle
Forecast by ACT Research and other reports from DAT Freight & Analytics and FTR Transportation Intelligence still show slow markets, but an upside might be around the corner. A new outlook from ACT Research plus various recent reports on the spot and contract markets paint a picture of freight-hauling still in a down cycle that nevertheless stands a chance of recovering soon.
Spot rates rose in May, but strong new equipment production will slow the ascent initially. Class 8 backlogs are sufficient for a while but are starting to dwindle as order activity has declined with industry profitability. That spot rates have largely held onto the gains when inspections and out-of-service citations took freight-carrying capacity off the roads] suggests the freight market is close to the elusive balance, but the rebalancing so far has been mainly on the labor side.
Though equipment capacity is still growing, labor capacity is tightening as some fleets shrink and others exit. Aside from the pandemic capacity shock in April 2020, we are on track for a record contraction in labor capacity this year, which is key to the bottoming process.
Truckload freight volumes rallied modestly last month, and national average spot rates were stable for a second straight month. An indicator of loads moved during a given month, increased for all three major modes of freight transportation: van, refrigerated (reefer) and flatbed. Shippers are taking advantage of abundant truckload capacity to establish new contract rates at substantial savings compared to 2022 and to make strategic use of the spot market. Monthly national average line-haul rates, which subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, increased for the first time this year in May for all three equipment types.
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